In winter, rising temperatures have increased the number of frost-free days. Zack and Mike mention that last year was an extremely dry monsoon, and this year is extremely wet. The southwestern desert is hot, with winter daytime temperatures in the lower 60s and average summer daytime temperatures between 105 and 115F. Left photoandright photoby NPS/Michael Quinn (Grand Canyon National Park via flickr,Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, images cropped and resized). Average temperatures found in the Southwest tend to decrease northward, which is largely the influence of latitude and elevation. For the climate on early Earth prior to 541 million years ago, see the Introduction to Climate section. While this will help with the ongoing drought in the southwest, in many regions the precipitation deficit has been building for a long time. Fossil mammals adapted to colder temperatures are found in the Pleistocene of Colorado. Four of western North America's major watersheds lie within its boundaries: the Colorado River basin, the Rio Grande basin, the Sacramento-San Joaquin watershed, and most of the Great Basin. Did La Nia drench the Southwest United States in early winter 2022/23? In New Mexico, for example, average annual precipitation ranges from less than 25 centimeters (10 inches) within the Great Plains and Basin and Range regions to more than 50 centimeters (20 inches) at the higher elevations to the northwest. Large portions of the Southwest have experienced drought conditions since weekly Drought Monitor records began in 2000. The Great Plains receive warm, moist air moving north from the Gulf of Mexico, and cold, dry air moving in from the Rocky Mountains and the northern U.S. Where these air masses meet, vigorous mixing causes thunderstorms. During winter months, daytime temperatures may average 70 degrees F, with night temperatures often falling to freezing of slightly below in the lower desert valleys." Monsoon rainfall activity tends to be grouped into bursts, with periods of rainy days interspersed with drier periods, rather than rain every day. Although there has been a fair amount of research into the monsoon, there are still far more questions than answers about how it works, and if the seasonal amount of rain, potential start date, or other characteristics can be predicted. This chart shows annual values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, averaged over six states in the Southwest (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah). Much of the Southwest became an archipelago of warm shallow seaways and uplifted islands, with terrestrial swampy forests and shallow sea floors populated by bivalves, brachiopods, arthropods, corals, and fish. This page uses Google Analytics. Figure by climate.gov. Copyright 2021 Paleontological Research Institution. The first letter of each zone in the key indicates its major classification. Source:Figure 1 from Erdei et al. Note that the southwestern region of the U.S. is covered by a shallow sea. The Southwest experiences nearly every variety of extreme weather; heat snaps and cold waves, droughts, floods, blizzards, and even tornados are all considerations for residents of the southwestern states. 2010. Natural variability, changes in irrigation practices, and other diversions of water for human use can influence certain drought-related measurements. Studies show that the southwestern states' climate is changing right now and that change has accelerated in the latter part of the 20th century. Shallow seas invaded the continent, ultimately covering the whole area until the late Carboniferous. To provide more detailed information, each state has been divided into climate divisions, which are zones that share similar climate features. Scale bar = 5 centimeters (about 2 inches). This project was made possible in part by the Institute of Museum and Library Services (ARPML-250637-OMLS-22).The views, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this website do not necessarily represent those of the Institute of Museum and Library Services. :https://earthathome.org/de/talk-about-climate/, Digital Encyclopedia of Earth Science: What is climate? A strong temperature difference at different heights creates instability. A couple of field campaigns, including the Arizona-based South-West Monsoon Project (SWAMP, 1993) and the international North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME, 2004), provided a lot of observational data and resulted in a better understanding of the mechanics of the monsoon. Accessed March 2021. www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag. Photo by Udo S. Title: Monument Valley - Arizona / USA. This movement of air in different directions is also the reason for the high incidence of powerful tornados that occur along "Tornado Alley" in the Great Plains, which affect eastern New Mexico and especially eastern Colorado. The impacts of the monsoon go beyond just rainfall amounts. The summer precipitation total for the CONUS was 9.48 inches, 1.16 inch above average, ranking eighth wettest in the historical record. This circulation brings thunderstorms and rainfall to the monsoon region, providing much of their annual total precipitation. The distance between Santa Fe and Las Vegas, New Mexico, is about 65 kilometers (about 40.5 miles). Frequent showers and thunderstorms continue well into the summer. See the Drought indicator for more information about these indices. Some earlier studies suggested that El Nio may be related to lower JulyAugust rainfall, and La Nia related to higher rainfall, due to large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Cumbres in the San Juan Mountains receives nearly 7.6 meters (300 inches) of snowfall annually, while Manassa, less than 50 kilometers (30 miles) away in the San Luis Valley, receives only about 63 centimeters (25 inches) of snow a year. Warm, moist air from the south occasionally but infrequently moves into Colorado during the summer. As Pangaea reached its greatest size during the early Triassic, the monsoons intensity increased, and the vast dune deserts of the late Permian were replaced by rivers and floodplains. Modified from illustrations by Wade Greenberg-Brand originally published inThe Teacher-Friendly Guide to the Earth Science of the SouthwesternUS. Photo by Stefan Klein (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped and resized). [7] Pion pines are very drought tolerant and have survived dry periods in the past. Some areas were more than2F warmer than average (see Figure 1). Digital Encyclopedia of Earth Science: Why talk about climate change? A major contributing factor to this event was a geological change that occurred far to the south. Light precipitation travels eastward over the Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountains after dropping heavy snowfall in areas of high elevation. Increased heat in the Pacific Ocean has altered the weather patterns of Pacific storms, decreasing snowfall in the mountains of western Utah and Arizona. (2011)PLoS ONE3(7): e2791(Creative Commons Attribution license, image reorganized and resized). Since then carbon dioxide emissions have been on a downward trend. A deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) in Portal, Arizona, 2004. Photo by Archaeopoda (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license, image cropped, resized, and labeled). Page snapshot:Introduction to the climate of the southwestern United States, including present, past, and future climate. Fossil ammonoid (Nigericeras scotti) from the Late Cretaceous Greenhorn Limestone, Baca County, Colorado. Southwestern states are stepping up their use and production of renewable energy. Columbian mammoth (Mammuthus columbi) tracks, Pleistocene, White Sands National Park, New Mexico. P. Natl. Zack also mentioned our good friend El Nio! North America's position near the equator kept its climate relatively warm. Volcanic activity intensified in the Southwest, and the Basin and Range region began to form, leading to the topography that is seen in those areas today (i.e., low valleys alternating with high mountain ranges). Southwest Increased heat, drought, and insect outbreaks, all linked to climate change, have increased wildfires. Fall- The fall in the Southwest region is warm. Agriculture accounts for more than half of the Southwests water use, so any major reduction in the availability of water resources will create a serious strain on ecosystems and populations. The average amount of precipitation for the United States is 85.6 centimeters (33.7 inches). So is climate change increasing monsoon variability? Soils associated with these floodplains testify to the extreme seasonality of rainfall during that time. Northwestern Mexico receives upwards of 75% of its average annual precipitation from it, and Arizona and New Mexico more than 50%, during JulySeptember. The oceans between Gondwana and North America began to close. Summer- The summer in the Southwest region is hot and desert-like. The thicker line is a nine-year weighted average. Time-series graph of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from southwestern states, showing rising emissions from 1970 to around 2008, followed by a decreasing trend from 2008 to 2019. One controversial hypothesis proposes that an area of western Coloradoone of the islands that dotted the early Carboniferous seawas, in fact, glaciated. Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 09/30/2021 - 10:15, Science & information for a climate-smart nation. Photo by James St. John (flickr, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license). Lake Powell, the lake created by Glen Canyon Dam, at two points in time about four years apart. Official websites use .gov Carbon dioxide emissions in Arizona rose through the last three decades of the 20th century and reached a peak in 2008. Average is based on 19792020 using CPC Unified data. Image adapted from an image by Scenarios for Climate Assessment and Adaptation, first published in The Teacher-Friendly Guide to the Earth Science of the Southwestern US. 2010. Data for Figure 2 were provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center. Also found are a number of tree species with a disjunct distribution. Figure by Emily Becker. 830 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023. Soil moisture, ground water, and streamflow are part of Drought Monitor calculations (Figure 2), and they are all sensitive to human activities. For southern and western Colorado, the intrusions of moist air are most common from mid July into September associated with wind patterns sometimes called the Southwest Monsoon. Image fromCretaceous Atlas of Ancient Life: Western Interior Seaway(Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 Internationallicense). The Palmer Index is calculated from precipitation and temperature measurements at weather stations, and has been used widely for many years. In general, it is expected that high alpine glaciers in the Colorado Rockies will disappear as the climate continues to warm. Average yearly tornado watches in each county of the United States between 1993 and 2012. New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado have also reduced their carbon dioxide emissions between 2008 and 2019. Yet this landscape actually supports a vast array of plants and animals, along with millions of people who call the Southwest home. Glaciation in the Southern Hemisphere occurred during the late Devonian, while the supercontinent Gondwana was located over the South Pole, and intensified during the early Carboniferous. Extreme high temperatures. The risk of dangerous wildfires is currently very high in parts of the Southwest. The warm, arid Southwest region presents extreme challenges to turf grasses in low- and high-desert climates. Here, the states varied topography leads to wide changes in climactic conditions that occur across short distances. Despite the monsoon rainfall this year, much of the region is still in a precipitation deficit. Utahs distance from both the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico prevents heavy precipitation, and much of the state is typically sunny year-round, with light to moderate winds. Cold continental conditions dominate the higher altitudes, especially within the Rocky Mountains. This led to global cooling and dropping global sea levels. Droughts also contribute to increased pest outbreaks and wildfires, both of which damage local economies, and they reduce the amount of water available for generating electricityfor example, at the Hoover Dam.1. 2021. The Southwest has a very unique culture, climate, and geography. Ill be back on my regular beat in a couple of weeks with the September ENSO update. Trees killed by bark beetles at Cameron Pass, Colorado, 2011. The Drought Monitor is a more recent and more detailed index based on several other indices (including Palmer), along with additional factors such as snow water content, groundwater levels, reservoir storage, pasture/range conditions, and other impacts. Water supply is an important issue in the Southwest, and communities will need to adapt to changes in precipitation, snowmelt, and runoff as the climate changes. Andrews Glacier in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, at two points in time. Brown indicates where precipitation has been less than average; green is greater than average. Notice that North America has separated from Africa and there is a spreading center in the Central Atlantic Ocean. The location of the Southwest and the topographical extremes across this area strongly influence its weather. This map shows how the average air temperature from 2000 to 2020has differed from the long-term average (18952020). however, the monsoons provide life-giving moisture in a region that is always dry. Rainfall associated with the monsoon is very important for the region. This feature provides a closer look at trends in temperature and drought in the southwestern United States. The daily range between maximum and minimum temperatures sometimes runs as much as 50 to 60 degrees F during the drier periods of the year. Where the land was exposed, deposits of dust (loess) accumulated and were blown across much of the Southwest. Photo source:National Park Service (public domain). Moving westward, Colorado's foothills and mountainous areas experience an overall cooler climate and higher levels of precipitation. This page uses Google Analytics. Eventually, a sheet of sea ice formed over the Arctic, and ice sheets spread over northern Asia, Europe, and North America, signaling the start of the most recent ice age. Not really sure if it's possible to even find that rabbit hole let alone getting to the end of it :) Good luck. That's at least one part of a very big climate puzzle crossing that barrier that involves both the ocean and atmosphere. In the Southwest, average precipitation ranges from only 34 centimeters (13.4 inches) in Utah to 39.9 centimeters (15.7 inches) in Colorado, which reflects the area's general aridity. Drought outlook for the Lower 48 U.S. states in August 2022. Precipitation also varies widely. Recent warming within the Southwest has been among the most rapid in the United States, and models predict that the area's climate will continue to warm. As the Cambrian progressed, North America moved northward, and what would become much of the southwestern U.S. was located near the Tropic of Capricorn. Reconstruction created usingPaleomap(by C. Scotese) forGPlates. Also extreme dryness which means days & weeks on end without rain. Some areas were more than 2F warmer than average (see Figure 1). In the middle Cretaceous, oceans covered most of the Southwest, with the exception of parts of Arizona and New Mexico. The warming conditions alone can be impactful, drying out soils quicker during breaks in monsoon rainfall, for example (2). Photo by James St. John (flickr,Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). Like the summer monsoons, the milder storms . Record high temperatures for the Southwest range from 53C (128F) in Arizona to 47C (117F) in Utah, while record low temperatures range from 56C (69F) in Utah to 40C (40F) in Arizona. Approximately 3.5 million years ago, glacial ice began to form over the Arctic Ocean and on the northern parts of North America and Eurasia. A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States. Photo of USNM 166396 from the Cretaceous Atlas of Ancient Life(Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped). A large, low-latitude desert formed along Pangaea's western margin, generating extensive dune deposits. Right:Graph of the lake's changing level over time. Title: Arizona Monsoon Thunderstorm. As average temperatures rise and the Southwest becomes drier with a longer annual fire season (season conducive to the ignition and spread of wildfires), the number and intensity of wildfires is expected to increase. Drier days and higher temperatures will amplify evaporation, increasing the desertification of already arid areas and affecting natural ecosystems as well as increasing pressure on the water supply for agriculture and cities. Pleistocene Lake Bonneville. Map by NOAA(public domain) modified for the[emailprotected]project. In 2020, Colorado ranked 7th in the nation for solar and wind power production, and Arizona and New Mexico ranked 12th and 13th, respectively. Published June 22, 2021 Updated Aug. 23, 2022. By early to mid-September, wind patterns have generally reverted back to the westerly pattern, bringing an end to the monsoon. Reconstruction created using basemap from thePALEOMAP PaleoAtlas for GPlatesand the PaleoData Plotter Program, PALEOMAP Project by C. R. Scotese (2016); map annotations by Jonathan R. Hendricks and Elizabeth J. Hermsen for PRI's[emailprotected]project (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0license). Pangaea began to break up during the Jurassic, rifting apart into continents that would drift toward their modern-day positions. Convective mixing forces the moisture in warm air to condense as it comes into contact with cool air, forming vapor (clouds) and precipitation (for example, rain or hail). Thus, each Southwestern state experiences both extreme highs and lows. Sci. These changes to rain and snow-pack are already stressing water sources and affecting agriculture. The North American monsoon, variously known as the Southwest monsoon, the Mexican monsoon, the New Mexican monsoon, or the Arizona monsoon is a pattern of pronounced increase in thunderstorms and rainfall over large areas of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico, typically occurring between June and mid-September.During the monsoon, thunderstorms are fueled by daytime heating . Here at the ENSO Blog, were always curious about the role of ENSO (El Nio/Southern Oscillation, the entire El Nio/La Nia system). Other elements involved in the ignition and growth of fires and the risks they pose to people living in the Southwest include (but are not limited to) forest management practices, development patterns, and human behavior (intentionally or unintentionally starting fires). During much of the year, the prevailing wind over northwestern Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico is westerly (blowing from the west) and dry. In a broad sense, the Southwests climate is mostly dry and hot, with much of the region characterized as arid. Pacific storms lose most of their moisture as they pass over the Rocky Mountains, so much of the Southwest's winter precipitation falls as snow within the areas mountainous regions. Although on the western edge of the North American Monsoon, California plant geography indicates it makes a large contribution to the states southern flora. Global temperatures during the Cretaceous were very warm, as much as 10C (18F) above those at present. In southern New Mexico and Arizona, shallow marine deposits, laid down when the ice in Gondwana retreated and sea level rose, alternate with layers of dust blown in when the ice in Gondwana advanced and sea level fell. It is the largest wildfire that New Mexico has ever witnessed. At the close of the Mesozoic, global climatealthough warmer than todaywas cooler than at the start of the era. (2019)Biology Letters15: 20190114(Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, images cropped, reconfigured, resized, and relabeled). Streamflow totals for the decade of 2001-2010 in the Great Basin, Rio Grande, and Colorado River were between 5% and 37% lower than their 20. The better known of these wet seasons is the summer monsoon, which lasts from about mid-June to early September. The Southwest's Triassic to Jurassic dune deposits are some of the most extensive in the world, and the dune field that existed during the Jurassic may be the largest in Earth history. Photo by Bigmikebmw (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license, image cropped). Storms form when there is strong convection in the atmosphere. Rainfall, as anyone who has read the ENSO Blog before will know, is an extremely complicated thing to predict! These deposits, including the Navajo Sandstone, are responsible for spectacular scenery in the national parks and recreation areas of northernmost Arizona and southern Utah. Famous sheriffs like Wyatt Earp and outlaws like Billy the . The Southwest's overall average high temperature of 19.2C (66.6F) and average low of 2.8C (37.0F) are indicative of a varied climate, one much less uniform than that found in many other parts of the United States. Its remnant exists today as the Great Salt Lake. Go to the full list of resources about the climate of the southwestern U.S. Go to the full list of general resources about climate. Onion Creek salt diapir, a salt dome exposed at the surface at Fisher Towers, Utah. Photograph by Julia Manzerova (Flickr;Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license; image resized). Facebook Tweet Secure .gov websites use HTTPS While thats often the situation for the Indian monsoon, the monsoon in North America behaves a bit differently. Shallow seaways spread over many of the continents, including South America, Africa, Eurasia, and North America. 2021. Taken on September 23, 2017. In the Silurian and Devonian (430 to 359 million years ago), North America moved north across the equator, and the cycle of warming and cooling was repeated yet again. The inner canyon temperatures are extreme and hot, with a lower elevation of about 2400 feet (732 meters). February 2023 ENSO update: the ENSO Blog investigates, part 3, How the pattern of trends across the tropical Pacific Ocean is critical for understanding the future climate, January 2023 La Nia update, and the ENSO Blog investigates, part 2, Albuquerque, NM National Weather Service office, ENSO does influence Pacific tropical storms, Tucson recorded its wettest month ever this July, Monsoon causes deadly flash flood in Arizona, Images of CO2 emissions and transport from the Vulcan project, TreeFlow: Streamflow Reconstructions from Tree Rings. Sun and storm in Weld County, in the Great Plains region of Colorado, 2015. Saguaro and cholla cacti in the Sonoran Desert National Monument, Arizona. Snowfall will be below normal in most areas that normally receive snow, with the snowiest periods in early to mid-January and early February. We can see some hints of this relationship in my scatter-plot here. The globe about 485 million years ago, near the Cambrian-Ordovician boundary. Despite the areas arid climate, the dunes were surprisingly full of life, particularly in southeastern Utah. Left:Lake Bonneville's maximal extent during the Pleistocene. Water is already scarce in the Southwest, so every drop is a precious resource. Left:Warm air rises. As a result of displacement due to continental rifting and seafloor spreading, sea level throughout the Cretaceous was much higher than it is today. As the summer heat builds over North America, a region of high pressure forms over the U.S. Southwest, and the wind becomes more southerly, bringing moisture from the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of California. Large glaciers were found at higher elevations, and temperatures were cool. Arizona's climate is influenced by three main topographical areas: the high Colorado Plateau (about 15202130 meters or 50007000 feet in elevation), the rugged mountains to the west (27403660 meters or 900012000 feet high), and the low southwestern mountains with desert valleys (as low as 30 meters or 100 feet above sea level). At any rate I'd just like to point out a potential clue to your springtime predictability barrier problem. Earth 150 million years ago, near the end of the Jurassic Period. Paleontological Research Institution Special Publication 38, Ithaca, NY, 200 pp. Figure by Ingrid Zabel for PRI's [emailprotected] project (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license). Wind moves the air, promoting mixing. Photo of USNM PAL 165239 by Crinoid Type Project (Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, public domain). Ordovician deposits across the Southwest indicate warm, shallow seas rich in invertebrate life. This fire, which started as two separate fires that merged, began in April 2022 and has since burned more than 138,000 hectares (340,000 acres) of land and over 300 homes. The rainfall generally has a strong diurnal cycle, meaning a daily pattern of mostly dry mornings, storms developing through the day, and most rainfall occurring in the afternoon and evening. JavaScript appears to be disabled on this computer. Climate.gov image of original from Albuquerque, NM National Weather Service office. 1. Historic data from Livneh et al. Photos of YPM IP 529539 by Jessica Utrup, 2015 (Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History/YPM,CC0 1.0 Universal/Public Domain Dedication, viaGBIF.org). Credits for individual images are given in figure captions. Maps showing the progressive closure of the Isthmus of Panama at 20 million years ago (A) and 15 million years ago (B). Climate at a glance. Maps and data. The Southwest is also definable, to an extent, by environmental conditions - primarily aridity. For temperature, the 2020 monsoon was the hottest on record for the Southwest with an average temperature of 77.1 F, significantly beating the previous record of 76.8 F in 2011 (average is 74.3 F). The supercontinent was split by spreading along the mid-Atlantic ridge, initiating the formation of the Atlantic Ocean. These are blog posts, not official agency communications; if you quote from these posts or from the comments section, you should attribute the quoted material to the blogger or commenter, not to NOAA, CPC, or Climate.gov. Maps modified from maps by Wade Greenberg-Brand, originally published inThe Teacher-Friendly Guide to the Earth Science of the SouthwesternUS, after figure 3 in L. Grande (2013) The Lost World of Fossil Lake. Copyright 2021 Paleontological Research Institution. During the winter, moisture travels from the west, as storms from the Pacific Ocean move east. By the late Carboniferous, North America had collided with Gondwana, leading to the formation of Pangaeaa supercontinent composed of nearly all the landmass on Earth. Photograph by Bill Morrow (Flickr;Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license). Photo by Eltiempo10 (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image resized). The causes of specific weather events such as tornados and severe thunderstorms are incredibly complex, although climate change has enhanced some correlated factors, such as increased wind speed and an unstable atmosphere. An increased frost-free season length also leads to increased water demands for agriculture and heat stress on plants. Arizona monsoon cloud with lightning striking the beautiful Sonoran desert in North Scottsdale. In the late Ordovician (about 460 to 430 million years ago), the Earth fell into another brief but intense ice age. Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 09/30/2021 - 10:14. Higher elevations (such as those found in the Rockies and on the Colorado Plateau) are also cooler, with approximately a 1.5C (3F) decrease in mean annual temperature for each 300-meter (1000-foot) increase in elevation. All rights reserved. Photo by Kenneth Carpenter (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped and resized). Data source: NOAA, 20214Web update: April2021, Key Points | Background | About the Data | Technical Documentation. Is the tropical storm season done for this part of the country? As of June 2022, it was more than 90% contained. PRI is a registered 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. Of the southwestern states, Arizona emits the most greenhouse gases, releasing 92.5 million metric tons of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2019. 94, 95, 96 Each assessment has consistently identified drought, water shortages, and loss of ecosystem integrity as major challenges that the Southwest confronts under climate change. Shelly sandstones in Utah represent vast tidal flats. PRI's free resource to help you learn about the Earth and its history. Photos by Lauren Dauphin, NASA Earth Observatory (used following NASA's image use policy). What is the weather like in the Southwest region in summer? Climate change in the Southwest The global rise in temperatures will affect different locations on earth in unique ways. Its not over yet, but possible that the overall monsoon rainfall in Arizona will end up being the highest on record.